Environmental Issues

Can the warming of the 20th century be explained by natural processes

Source CSIRO. (2009). Can the warming of the 20th century be explained by natural processesDepartment of Climate Change Australia.

Often the general public demands explanation of the ever increasing attention climate change has been receiving in the press, media and academia. It is important to explain the context of climatic change and how it is affected by natural factors as well as human factors.

Based on this argument, the author of the article mentions various factors which affect climate change and discusses which factors go beyond natural occurrences in the atmosphere. He divides the factors influence climate into internal and external forcing factors (CSIRO, 2009).

Internal forcing factors are related to the atmospheric and oceanic properties of the Earth (CSIRO, 2009). The oscillations produced by both these factors and often represented in the form of the El NinoLa Nina effects can cause differences in the cooling and warming properties of the Earth. Since wind patterns and global weather is affected by these factors, climate change is also affected by these factors.

External factors are related to the energy that is transmitted to the earth through radiation and external factors. These include mainly factors such as the radioactive energy received from the Sun and volcanic eruptions on land (CSIRO, 2009).  For instance, the effect on climate through a volcanic eruption can be described in the difference of temperature it creates in the stratosphere of the Earth. Due to the dust, the lower part of the atmosphere cools down while the upper part becomes hotter. Similarly, the radioactive solar energy varies based upon its position in the solar system and its corresponding position in line with the Sun. since the level of solar energy received by the Earth varies in cycles which are thousands of years long, the climatic changes that occur are based upon that fact since the solar radiation directly affects the insulation of the planet (CSIRO, 2009).

Using the fact material from modeling programs scientists use to computer climatic change, they have come to a conclusion that the Earth has warmed by 0.74 degree Celsius since the start of the 20th century. Since both internal and external factors were added to the model, even so, greenhouse gases and its forcing nature has outpaced all internal and external factors with their link to determining climate change and affecting it. based on this, they have released data that shows that global warming is most affected by greenhouse gases since the natural processes involved in climate change have only affected short term climatically conditions.

Finally, the article tries to clear the air and answer the question of climatic change and natural processes. Based on evidence provided by the article related to the temperature change in the Earth atmosphere, with the upper stratosphere increasing in temperature where as the lower part decreasing in it, and the increase in hot weather and the decrease in cold weather, scientists have concluded that these are some factors which point a finger mainly towards greenhouse gases, which are manmade (CSIRO, 2009). Evidence related to the warming of the poles, melting glaciers and the change in atmospheric pressure augment their observations and claims (CSIRO, 2009).

If scientists are unable to forecast the next weeks weather accurately, how can they predict the climate in the next 50 to 100 years

Source CSIRO. (2009). If scientists are unable to forecast the next weeks weather accurately, how can they predict the climate in the next 50 to 100 years Department of Climate Change Australia.
The reliability of climatic change occurring in the world today is often questioned by various people under the pretext of the above mentioned argument. To some, it would appear logical and convincing however the article discusses and argues the understandability between the two variables weather and climate (CSIRO, 2009).

The article describes the fundamental difference between weather and climate that most people do not understand. Weather is determined through testing and observing variables such as global atmospheric circulation. At the same time, storm activities and other weather related events are collaborated and based upon that, weather patterns are determined. Climate is observed on a much longer term basis than weather, which is done on a daily basis. Because of this, climate is viewed through variables of temperature changes, precipitation and wind patterns across entire regions. The author of the article mentions the long term nature stretching to months if not millions of years. Thus, the first argument made by the article is that weather is based on chaotic circumstances which can go wrong due to the short run analysis and unpredictability of the atmosphere. However, climate measurements can give an accurate mean of weather in a region because of the length of time dedicated to observing the region.

The author goes on to mention the way climate and weather are measured through models. Principally, the models used are the same. The only difference is the time. Studying the behavior of the Earth through lenses encompassing physical, biological and chemical processes, both climate and weather are computed (CSIRO, 2009). The key difference lies in the fact that when computing weather calculations and predictions, initial factors (which can vary) at the beginning of the term of forecast must be considered. Thus, variances and fluctuations in the model analysis can occur. This is not to say that climatic models are 100 accurate. But because of their long term nature, and the use of generalized properties, they are far more accurate. At the same time, climatic models do not produce just one result. Scientists keep in mind the essence of variability and compute different model results, which are then averaged to produce a consistent result.

Has global warming stopped
Source CSIRO. (2009).Has global warming stoppedDepartment of Climate Change Australia.
Claims made by certain sectors of the public, media and other stakeholders tend to reflect that the process of global warming has ended. However, in reality, scientists have conducted thorough research and have proved that the phenomena is still occurring and rising with time with temperatures rising by 0.74 degree Celsius in the 20th century. They refute the arguments based on the premise that such statements come from those who do not realize that temporary coolings due to the El Nino affect are not reflective of long term changes.

The first argument made by scientists is in respect to the surface air temperatures of the planet. When taking away the effect of El Nino, which does not cover the temperatures of the arctic, it is clear that the global temperature is rising. They also cite that people generally forget the nature of trends. They are long term based and thus the start and end year are fundamentally important when analysis has to be conducted (CSIRO, 2009). Some periods will show decrease in warming where as other periods will show a general increase in the temperatures of the Earth. If long term trends are established, the past decade is noted to be topping the list of time period for temperature increase on the planet.

Second, scientists mention the observations of the Troposphere atmosphere temperatures which are in the lower part of the atmosphere. These temperatures reading reflect almost consistent results to those that were obtained through surface air temperature observations.

Finally, the observation of temperatures near oceanic regions and sea levels reveals another startling picture that global warming is continuing, if not increasing on the planet. Since research has concluded that the warming effect caused by the greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere directly affect the oceans and their temperatures, the importance of oceanic temperature is paramount. Based upon that, researchers have conducted various observations which have proved that the temperature has risen in the oceans and sea levels. This can be further validated by the fact that during the 20th century, sea level increased by 17 centimeters.